O, Great!

Bet the farm on W in 2004? However, the assassination of JFK in '63 killed Vaughn Meador's career as a Kennedy impressionist. If W is reelected in 2004 (groan), (Fair & Balanced) Rants & Raves will have a cause! If this be (fair & balanced) cynicism, so be it.

[x London Times]
History Suggests Bush Will Win in 2004
by Tim Hames

In the past 100 years only four elected Presidents have missed a second term.

Washington is a city built on a swamp, land kindly donated by the State of Maryland, which had no idea what else to do with it. In August the heat and humidity are often insufferable. This may explain why every four years, 15 months in advance of a presidential election, the political class of the American capital lose their collective senses. The prospects of the sitting Presidents are spectacularly misread, the opportunities available for outsider candidates are massively overstated and the implausible possibility of new contenders entering and seizing control of the contest are spoken of as if a certainty. Whatever the cause, call it "the August syndrome".

The 2003 version of this strange disease, astutely reported by Roland Watson in this space on Saturday, runs as follows. George W. Bush is today deemed to be "in trouble" due to economic uncertainty and the Iraq quagmire. One or two scenarios therefore become viable. The first is that Howard Dean, the anti-war "insurgent" former Governor of Vermont, will end up in the White House. Dr Dean took his campaign bus on a national tour last week and the crowds were so large that his first words on observing them were "Holy cow". This must make him the first Batman fan to seek to assume George Washington's mantle. The second thesis is that more established figures - Al Gore, Senator Hillary Clinton or General Wesley Clark - will sniff the air, sense victory and allow themselves to be dragged to the hustings like Cincinnatus from the plough. Wounded President, outsider on a roll, white knight waiting in the wings. Lights, camera, action.

Alas for those of us sad enough to be interested in this race 429 days before polling day, the script lacks originality. In the words of an American baseball coach, Yogi Berra, it is "deja vu all over again". In August 1999, the word was that Mr Gore did not stand the slightest chance of becoming President and that Bill Bradley would beat him to the Democratic nomination. Six months later Senator John McCain was poised to deny Mr Bush his party's colours. That Bradley McCain battle somehow never happened.

In August 1995, Bill Clinton was "in trouble". Marginalised by the new Republican Congress, he was quaking in his boots as General Colin Powell was poised to run against him. And when this event inexplicably failed to materialise, it was Steve Forbes, the billionaire "outsider" with his flat-tax plan, not dull old Robert Dole, who would surely be his challenger.

Four years before that, in August 1991, George Bush Sr was not in trouble but was certain to win by a landslide. When that prognosis had to be reassessed, it was assumed that Governor Mario Cuomo of New York would stand. After he declined, Ross Perot, not Mr Clinton, who was already damaged goods, became the smart bet of the moment.

If you really wanted to, and I do not recommend it, you could take this process back for several more Augusts. Vice-President George Bush was a hopeless loser in 1987 (Newsweek ran a front cover of him then under the headline "Fighting the Wimp Factor"), while Democrats were expecting Lee Iacocca, the chairman of Chrysler, to enter the electoral arena. Ronald Reagan was in hot water in 1983 with Senator John Glenn set to vanquish him, and when he failed to take off it was Senator Gary Hart, an outsider, who would produce the competition. Jimmy Carter in 1979 was destined to lose not to Mr Reagan (a "right-wing nut") but Senator Edward Kennedy.

Senator Hubert Humphrey was to beat Gerald Ford in 1975; Senator Edmund Muskie to dismiss Richard Nixon in 1971. The Washington pundits of 1803 probably concluded that Thomas Jefferson was in a hopeless position.

All of which should, to put it mildly, counsel a little caution this summer. It might even inspire some respect for what are the three basic rules of presidential politics. The first is that it is very hard to deny an elected President re-election. In the past 100 years only four such men - William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Mr Carter and Mr Bush Sr - have not acquired a second term.

Each of them suffered from a sharp economic downturn in election year and serious divisions within their political party. The present President, by contrast, can expect the US economy to expand by at least 3 to 4 per cent in 2004 and will face no internal opposition next year. This alone would lead the historian to put their mortgage on him.

Copyright © 2003 The London Times