The 56% Solution

Well, well. W's approval rating today is the same as Jimmy Carter's in 1980 (before the Iranian Hostage Crisis). Karl Rove must be worrying about the deteriorating situation in Iraq. We seem to be getting in position for a good ol' cut'n run. Instead of Buddhist monk immolations and Viet Minh sabotage, we have suicide bombing and Shi'ite theats of fatwa. (See the original fatwa against the United States below.) Our response? Move the troops out of Baghdad. Gerald Ford wasn't helped by the images of heliocopters leaving Saigon with poor souls dangling from the struts. W won't be helped by an uncooperative Iraqui resistance. And Osama bin Laden is still at large. If this be (fair & balanced) pessimism, so be it.

[x NYTimes]
All the Presidents' Numbers
By ANDREW KOHUT and HARRY CAMPBELL

By most measures prospects for George W. Bush's re-election look very good. No single indicator guarantees a second term, of course, but on balance the president's numbers are as good if not better than those of the three presidents who won second terms in recent times.



From a political standpoint, Mr. Bush is strong. His approval ratings are relatively high, as is the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the right track, and alone among recent presidents he saw his party gain seats in the midterm elections.

The economic numbers are also positive. Consumer confidence is high, disposable income is rising and the unemployment rate is lower than that of the three presidents who lost bids for re-election.

Yet the numbers, as always, don't tell the full story. The effects of partisan polarization, for example, are unpredictable, and it is near an all-time high; Democrats disapprove of Mr. Bush almost as much as Republicans disapproved of President Bill Clinton. What's more, news that seems to be good — like rising approval ratings — doesn't always lead to re-election, while news that seems to be bad — like relatively high unemployment — doesn't necessarily ruin an incumbent's chances. Just ask Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan.

These statistics have been culled from publicly available sources, including the Gallup Organization, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the University of Michigan, and Congressional Quarterly and other news organizations.


Andrew Kohut is director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. Harry Campbell is an illustrator.

Copyright © 2004 The New York Times Company

P.S. (From the Archives)

Osama bin Laden's Marching Orders

Text of Fatwah Urging Jihad Against Americans
Published in Al-Quds al-'Arabi on Febuary 23, 1998

Statement signed by Sheikh Usamah Bin-Muhammad Bin-Ladin; Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of the Jihad Group in Egypt; Abu- Yasir Rifa'i Ahmad Taha, a leader of the Islamic Group; Sheikh Mir Hamzah, secretary of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Pakistan; and Fazlul Rahman, leader of the Jihad Movement in Bangladesh

Praise be to God, who revealed the Book, controls the clouds, defeats factionalism, and says in His Book "But when the forbidden months are past, then fight and slay the pagans wherever ye find them, seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them in every stratagem (of war)"; and peace be upon our Prophet, Muhammad Bin-'Abdallah, who said "I have been sent with the sword between my hands to ensure that no one but God is worshipped, God who put my livelihood under the shadow of my spear and who inflicts humiliation and scorn on those who disobey my orders." The Arabian Peninsula has never--since God made it flat, created its desert, and encircled it with seas--been stormed by any forces like the crusader armies now spreading in it like locusts, consuming its riches and destroying its plantations. All this is happening at a time when nations are attacking Muslims like people fighting over a plate of food. In the light of the grave situation and the lack of support, we and you are obliged to discuss current events, and we should all agree on how to settle the matter.

No one argues today about three facts that are known to everyone; we will list them, in order to remind everyone:

First, for over seven years the United States has been occupying the lands of Islam in the holiest of places, the Arabian Peninsula, plundering its riches, dictating to its rulers, humiliating its people, terrorizing its neighbors, and turning its bases in the Peninsula into a spearhead through which to fight the neighboring Muslim peoples.

If some people have formerly debated the fact of the occupation, all the people of the Peninsula have now acknowledged it.

The best proof of this is the Americans' continuing aggression against the Iraqi people using the Peninsula as a staging post, even though all its rulers are against their territories being used to that end, still they are helpless. Second, despite the great devastation inflicted on the Iraqi people by the crusader-Zionist alliance, and despite the huge number of those killed, in excess of 1 million... despite all this, the Americans are once against trying to repeat the horrific massacres, as though they are not content with the protracted blockade imposed after the ferocious war or the fragmentation and devastation.

So now they come to annihilate what is left of this people and to humiliate their Muslim neighbors.

Third, if the Americans' aims behind these wars are religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews' petty state and divert attention from its occupation of Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there.

The best proof of this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest neighboring Arab state, and their endeavor to fragment all the states of the region such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan into paper statelets and through their disunion and weakness to guarantee Israel's survival and the continuation of the brutal crusade occupation of the Peninsula.

All these crimes and sins committed by the Americans are a clear declaration of war on God, his messenger, and Muslims. And ulema have throughout Islamic history unanimously agreed that the jihad is an individual duty if the enemy destroys the Muslim countries. This was revealed by Imam Bin-Qadamah in "Al- Mughni," Imam al-Kisa'i in "Al- Bada'i," al-Qurtubi in his interpretation, and the shaykh of al-Islam in his books, where he said "As for the militant struggle, it is aimed at defending sanctity and religion, and it is a duty as agreed. Nothing is more sacred than belief except repulsing an enemy who is attacking religion and life."


On that basis, and in compliance with God's order, we issue the following fatwa to all Muslims

The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies--civilians and military--is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. This is in accordance with the words of Almighty God, "and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together," and "fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in God."

This is in addition to the words of Almighty God "And why should ye not fight in the cause of God and of those who, being weak, are ill-treated and oppressed--women and children, whose cry is 'Our Lord, rescue us from this town, whose people are oppressors; and raise for us from thee one who will help!'"

We -- with God's help -- call on every Muslim who believes in God and wishes to be rewarded to comply with God's order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan's U.S. troops and the devil's supporters allying with them, and to displace those who are behind them so that they may learn a lesson.

Almighty God said "O ye who believe, give your response to God and His Apostle, when He calleth you to that which will give you life. And know that God cometh between a man and his heart, and that it is He to whom ye shall all be gathered."

Almighty God also says "O ye who believe, what is the matter with you, that when ye are asked to go forth in the cause of God, ye cling so heavily to the earth! Do ye prefer the life of this world to the hereafter? But little is the comfort of this life, as compared with the hereafter. Unless ye go forth, He will punish you with a grievous penalty, and put others in your place; but Him ye would not harm in the least. For God hath power over all things."


Almighty God also says "So lose no heart, nor fall into despair. For ye must gain mastery if ye are true in faith."