The Trickster On Campaign 2004

William Safire was the Trickster's speechwriter. In the second of his interviews with the Trickster in Purgatory (for his Republican apostasy with price controls in the early 70s), Safire offers the Trickster's cynicism about the political process and the candidates it produces. In the first assessment, the Trickster dismissed Richard Gephardt as a credible candidate because Gephardt had no eyebrows. It all comes down to an October surprise. Crises help incumbents? The Iranian hostage crisis sure didn't help Jimmy Carter. If this is (fair & balanced) cynicism, so be it.

[x NYTimes]
The View From Purgatory
By WILLIAM SAFIRE

Reached on his picture-taking cellphone in Purgatory, where he is halfway through expiating his price-control sin, Richard M. Nixon — winner of innumerable primary elections — agreed to a brief interview with his former speechwriter.

Q: What's your reading of the results of yesterday's round of primaries?

RN: Southern charm sells in South Carolina. I like this Edwards; he's a helluva salesman of the old Truman "special interests" line. And his victory speech was straight out of Jesse Jackson's convention rouser. Edwards was willing to roll the dice, too, saying he had to win that first Southern primary or he was finished. Gutsy.

Q: But doesn't he seem a little young to run for president?

RN: He's 50, three years older than I was when I ran against Kennedy in '60.

Q: What's his vulnerability?

RN: Slick lawyer. Beat $25 million for himself out of doctors and hospitals in malpractice suits, and that money came out of average families' pockets in the form of higher insurance premiums. That, plus the trial lawyers' lobby, bought and paid for him on tort reform. Some oppo research could rough him up a bit, but not enough to kill his chances.

Q: Not inexperience?

RN: I'd hate to see him in a room with Putin, and Chirac would eat him for lunch. But even if Edwards doesn't make it, he's a slam-dunk for running mate. And if the Democratic ticket loses, all the exposure — and the national experience — would make him a natural to take on Hillary for the top spot next time. He's a comer.

Q: You're certain, then, that Kerry has the nomination in the bag?

RN: He got up off the floor and made a good comeback, and I like the comeback story, as you know. And last night, Kerry won big in Missouri, where the delegates are. Picking up delegates is like washing dishes by hand — one by one, state by state till you have the magic number and the nomination. Then the hell with 'em.

Q: How did Kerry manage to turn it around?

RN: You want me to say "electability" like all those jackasses yakkin' it up on cable. That's what Rockefeller tried on me, but only the hacks and the hot partisans put electability first. It's one element, but it can get loused up in fluctuating mano a mano polls, and it vanishes as an asset when the election campaign begins. No, Kerry came back because he's an homme serioux — that's French for a man with gravitas — which is what people want, and it doesn't matter that he has a face like a horse.

Q: What happened to Howard Dean?

RN: Dean fell in love with his early press clips and the clapping of the antiwar bunch, but he couldn't take the heat and blew it. I feel for him in a way — all those pretty-face media types kissing your ring when you're flying high, and then the minute you stumble, they smell blood and turn on you like a wolf pack. But put my media feeling on deep background — it's something I'm supposed to be expiating.

Q: After losing everywhere last night, can Dean come back?

RN: If he could get Kerry to debate one on one, sure. But Kerry's no dope. Never debate when you're ahead.

Q: Who would win in a televised Kerry-Bush debate?

RN: Kerry on debating points, but Bush on personality, optimism and all that stuff that Kennedy and Reagan had down pat. But Edwards would lose to Cheney — against a steady hand, there's such a thing as too much charisma.

Q: Will the dominant issue in the campaign be jobs or Iraq or health care?

RN: You forget the Quemoy-Matsu syndrome. What decides a close race is how candidates react to an October surprise. What if bin Laden is caught, or "Dr. Germs" spills the beans about Iraqi anthrax, or our casualties continue? What about a White House scandal, or some revelation about a candidate's liberalism, or an accident or a heart attack? What if the market falls out of bed or there's a terrorist attack or the Chinese move on Quemoy and Matsu?

Q: Yes — what if?

RN: Most crises help incumbents.

Copyright © 2004 The New York Times Company