Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Onefer The Money, Twofer The -Show-... Huh? It's The Money, Stupid!

The doomsday clock is ticking in our land. Out of today's commentary, the one factoid that grabbed this blogger's attention was the November 1, 2013 deadline for Social Security payments in November. Uh, oh. Is that rumbling noise the sound of restless Gray Panthers? The Dumbos and Morons ain't seen angry if the November checks aren't deposited. If this is (fair & balanced) geezer self-interest, so be it.

P.S. Helpful hint from the blogger: click on the bracketed numbers below to hop from one item to another; click on "Back To Directory" to return to the starting point. Thanks be to Vannevar Bush for giving us the idea of hypertext.

[Vannevar Bush HyperlinkBracketed NumbersDirectory]
[1] The Executive Order Option," Thanks To Saul Jackman
[2] Neo-Confederate Strategery, Thanks To Michael Lind

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President Obama Should Issue An Executive Order To Raise The Debt Ceiling
By Saul Jackman

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As the debt ceiling deadline of October 17 approaches, President Barack Obama and the United States Congress are playing a game of chicken with the world’s economy on the line. As both sides become increasingly entrenched in their positions, the risk of the United States defaulting on its debt, and of the economy spinning into a recession grows. Meanwhile, President Obama has the institutional authority to put an end to this game, thus unilaterally preventing an international economic crisis. The question remains whether he will do so, and what those actions would mean for the crisis.

It is the right of any president to declare a state of emergency and to take action necessary to protect the nation. America has a long-standing history of granting or tacitly accepting expanded presidential powers in times of crisis. As the sole figure elected by the entire nation, he is the politician to whom we turn when faced with a national emergency, and in so doing, we often allow him leeway to act in ways that protect the nation even if we would not imbue those powers upon him in calmer times. During the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus. During World War Two, Franklin Roosevelt set price controls, prevented labor strikes, and in many other ways manipulated the American economy so as to help the nation in its mission to topple the Axis Powers. Moreover, emergencies — and presidential emergency powers — need not involve military conflict. In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, George W. Bush declared a national emergency and went on to provide special federal aid to New Orleans. In 1971, a state of emergency was declared in response to inflation. Indeed, as of October 7, 2013, President Obama has issued 21 unclassified executive orders declaring a state of national emergency or modifying a previously issued executive order declaring a state of national emergency so that he can invoke extraordinary powers.

So if laws allow the president to declare a national emergency and subsequently act unilaterally (i.e., without the explicit consent of Congress) to resolve that emergency, then the next question is, what constitutes an emergency? Judging by past actions, emergencies include wars, natural disasters, and economic catastrophes. Would the United States defaulting on its debt qualify? By most predictions, it would. A Goldman-Sachs report estimates a 4.2% drop in annualized GDP as an immediate consequence of the government cutting its spending as needed to stay under the debt limit for just a single month. Unemployment rates are likely to rise — the Great Recession saw unemployment increase from 5.0% in December 2007 to 10.0% in October 2009 — and default is expected to yield similar effects. And depending on governmental spending decisions, social security payments may be halted if the debt ceiling is not raised by November 1. Surely, these projections constitute an emergency worthy of extraordinary measures. An executive order to raise the debt ceiling may not completely eliminate market uncertainty, but it would greatly reduce concerns relative to possible chaos in financial markets.

True, President Obama has expressed reluctance to raise the debt ceiling unilaterally, as some have questioned whether such action would be constitutionally valid. But such arguments fail to account for the contradiction between appropriations bills and the debt ceiling: since Congress has both authorized spending and denied the President the means to collect the money to cover that spending, the President is technically in violation of the Constitution whether he raises the debt ceiling or not. Put differently, the President is charged constitutionally both with executing the appropriations bills authorized by Congress as well as protecting the full faith and credit of the United States. A unilateral increase in the debt ceiling may be the only way to uphold his Constitutional duties. As such, his primary constitutional responsibility is to implement the laws in such a way as to best protect the interests of the nation. And the longer this crisis plays out, the clearer it will become to all involved — especially President Obama — that a state of emergency is upon us, and that the best way he can protect the interests of our nation is to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling.

More to the point, such an action would be self-enforcing once issued. President Obama would look like a strong leader, guiding the nation out of an impending disaster. And once the debt ceiling was raised, Congress would be put in the position of needing to assemble a majority in both the House and the Senate willing to vote on record to undo the President’s actions, and thus ensuring default. In other words, Congress would need to take positive action to ensure an economic crisis. Such an act would be political suicide.

Once a state of emergency is declared, the President would have multiple mechanisms through which to raise the debt ceiling — via an executive order, memorandum, or proclamation, to name a few. The exact mechanism chosen, though, is of less importance than the action itself. The ultimate arbitrator of the constitutionality of the President’s actions will be the Supreme Court (notably, not Congress). Since the Constitution does not clearly state that the President cannot raise the debt ceiling in times of crisis — see the 14th Amendment argument — and the public is eager for any solution to the debt ceiling impasse, it seems likely that the courts would look favorably on presidential action to prevent an economic emergency of this magnitude.

Thus, the solution to the debt ceiling crisis lies in President Obama’s hands. He needs to recognize this as the national emergency that it is, and issue an executive order to solve the problem. Congress will get in line if he does. It’s a game of chicken, but in this game, the president holds the trump card. Ω

[Saul Jackman is a fellow in the Governance Studies program, and a member of the Center for Effective Public Management, at the Brookings Institution. Jackman holds a B.A. from the University of California at Berkeley and an M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University. His Stanford dissertation examined the fundamental tension that exists between the president and Congress.]

Copyright © 2013 The Brookings Institution

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The South Is Holding America Hostage
By Michael Lind

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When I have described the well-considered, coherent political and economic strategies of the conservative white South, as I have done here, here and here, I am sometimes been accused of being a “conspiracy theorist.” But one need not believe that white-hooded Dragons and Wizards are secretly coordinating the actions of Southern conservative politicians from a bunker underneath Stone Mountain in Georgia to believe that a number of contemporary policies — from race-to-the-bottom economic policies to voter disfranchisement and attempts to decentralize or privatize federal social insurance entitlements — serve the interests of those who promote them, who tend to be white Southern conservatives.

Just as a strategy is not a conspiracy, so it is not insanity. Ironically, American progressives, centrists and some Northern conservatives are only deluding themselves, when they insist that the kind of right-wing Southerners behind the government shutdown are “crazy.” Crazy, yes — crazy like a fox.

Another mistake is the failure to recognize that the Southern elite strategy, though bound up with white supremacy throughout history, is primarily about cheap and powerless labor, not about race. If the South and the U.S. as a whole through some magical transformation became racially homogeneous tomorrow, there is no reason to believe that the Southern business and political class would suddenly embrace a new model of political economy based on high wages, high taxes and centralized government, rather than pursue its historical model of a low-wage, low-tax, decentralized system, even though all workers, employers and investors now shared a common skin color.

So the struggle is not one to convert Southern Baptists to Darwinism or to get racists to celebrate diversity. The on-going power struggle between the local elites of the former Confederacy and their allies in other regions and the rest of the United States is not primarily about personal attitudes. It is about power and wealth.

For some time, the initiative has rested with the Southern power elite, which knows what it wants and has a plan to get it. The strategy of the conservative South, as a nation-within-a nation and in the global economy, combines an economic strategy and a political strategy.

The economic strategy is to maximize the attractiveness of the former Confederacy to external investors, by allowing Southern states to out-compete other states in the U.S., as well as other countries if possible, in a race to the bottom by means of low wages, stingy government welfare (which if generous increases the bargaining power of poor workers by decreasing their desperation) and low levels of environmental regulation.

The political strategy of the Southern elite is to prevent the Southern victims of these local economic policies from teaming up with allies in other parts of the U.S. to impose federal-level reforms on the Southern states. Voter suppression seeks to prevent voting by lower-income Southerners of all races who are hostile to the Southern power elite. Partisan gerrymandering of the U.S. House of Representatives by conservatives in Southern state legislatures weakens the votes of anti-conservative Southerners, if they are allowed to vote.

If voter suppression and vote dilution strategies fail, the Southern conservatives can still try to ward off unwelcome federally-imposed reforms that might weaken control of the Southern workforce by Southern employers and their political agents, by policies of devolving federal programs to the states, privatizing federal programs like Social Security and Medicare, blocking the implementation of new federal entitlements like Obamacare or a combination of these strategies.

To date the response of progressives and centrists, as well as moderate conservatives in the North (who have a quite different tradition) to what might be called the Southern Autonomy Project has been feeble and reactive. The South acts, the rest of the country reacts.

Here Midwestern Republican legislatures or governors try to copy the South’s anti-labor “right-to-work” legislation, and labor activists and liberals react. The legislatures in the South and their allies elsewhere pass voter suppression laws, and civil rights groups scramble to counteract them. Now the Southern-dominated Tea Party in the House shuts down the government and threatens to force the federal government into default. In this game of “Whack-a-mole,” the Southern right and its neo-Jacksonian allies in other parts of the country always has the initiative.

Instead of waiting for the next Southern conservative outrage, and treating it as a single, isolated example of inexplicable craziness, the rest of America from center-left to center-right should recognize that it is dealing with different aspects of a single strategy by a regional elite — the Southern Autonomy Project. It is time for the non-Southern American majority, in alliance with many non-elite Southerners of all races, to target and attack every element of the Southern Autonomy Project simultaneously. If the neo-Confederates want to wage political and economic war, their fellow Americans should choose to respond with political and economic war on all fronts, not on the terms and in the places the Southern conservatives choose.

Setting political difficulty aside, it is intellectually easy to set forth a grand national strategy that consists of coordinated federal policies to defeat the Southern Autonomy Project.

A federal living wage. At one blow, a much higher federal minimum wage would cripple the ability of Southern states to lure companies from more generous states which supplement the too-low present federal minimum wage with higher local state or urban minimum wages. (Strong national unions could do the same, but that is not a realistic option at present.)

Nationalization of social insurance. Social insurance programs with both federal and state components, like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), allow Southern states to be stingier than many other states, creating more desperate workers who are more dependent on the mercy of employers and elite-dominated charities. Completely federalizing Medicaid (as President Ronald Reagan suggested!) and other hybrid federal-state social insurance programs would cripple the Southern Autonomy Project further.

Real voting rights. Using the authority of the Fifteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, Congress should completely federalize voting requirements for all federal, state and local elections, making it as easy as possible for U.S. citizens to vote — over the objections of kicking and screaming neo-Confederates.

Nonpartisan redistricting. Partisan redistricting by majorities in state legislatures should be replaced by nonpartisan redistricting commissions, as in California, New Jersey and other states. The redistricting commissions should be truly nonpartisan, not “bipartisan” arrangements in which incumbent Republicans and incumbent Democrats cut deals to protect their safe seats from competition. (Electoral reforms like instant run-off voting and proportional representation are struggles for a more distant future).

Abolish the Senate filibuster. The filibuster is not part of the U.S. constitution. It has been used by Southern white conservatives from the nineteenth century to the twenty-first to preserve Southern white power and economic privilege. This relic of premodern British parliamentary politics should be abolished. Democracy means majority rule. If the Southern Right loses a battle in Congress, it can try to round up allies and win next time. It should no longer be able to paralyze the Senate, the Congress or the federal government as a whole.

Abolish the federal debt ceiling completely. The federal debt ceiling is another institution like the filibuster which has now been ruined by being abused by Southern conservatives. Now that the Southern right is trying to turn it into a recurrent tool of hostage-taking when it loses votes in Congress, the federal debt ceiling should be abolished. The federal government should be authorized to borrow any amount necessary to fund spending appropriated or authorized by Congress, if there is any shortfall in tax revenues.

Put all these policies and perhaps others together, and you have a National Majority Rule Project capable of thwarting the Southern Autonomy Project. The best defense is a good offense.

Does saying this make me, a white Southerner, a traitor to the South? Among the beneficiaries of a National Majority Rule Project, if it succeeded, would be middle- and low-income white Southerners, whose interests have never been identical with those of the local oligarchs. Particularly among the Scots-Irish of Appalachia and the Ozarks, there have always been many Southern white populists and radicals — from the West Virginian and Kentucky Unionists of the Civil War to New Deal liberals in Texas — who have understood the need to ally ourselves with non-Southerners in national politics to defeat the local Nabobs, Bourbons and Big Mules. The true Southern patriots are those of us who want to liberate the diverse population of the South from being exploited as wage earners and from being disfranchised or manipulated as voters. Another term for the National Majority Rule Project might be the Southern Liberation Movement.

Will the initiative remain with aggressive Southern reactionaries, as their fellow Americans try to appease them or react on a case-by-case basis against a feint here or a diversion there? Or will an aroused national majority, tired of being pushed around by a selfish Southern minority of the shrinking American white majority, finally fight back? Ω

[Michael Lind is Policy Director of the New America Foundation's Economic Growth Program and — most recently — the author of Land of Promise: An Economic History of the United States (2012). Lind holds a B.A. from The University of Texas-Austin, an M.A. from Yale University, and a J.D. from The University of Texas-Austin.]

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