The United States faces a Morton's Fork in the Middle East and The LK (Lyin' King) will make the choice (or not) between supporting Saudi Arabia with military aid against Iran... or do nothing. The LK has faced previous military challenges and had met them with empty luster and, finally, no action. (It's not plantar fasciitis or bone spurs, but rather "brain spurs". Of course, The LK (dumbest man in any room anywhere) has sent US troops back into Saudi Arabia after the attack on it oil refineries. And it was the stationing of US troops in Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War (1990-1991) that inspired the 9/11 Plot (2001) by Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda minions. That was the terrible result of US policy in the Middle East that dismissed the idea of consequences for US actions. Andrew Bacevich is a student of the geopolitics of the Middle East and he cautions non-support of either Iran or Saudi Arabia. Unfortunately, the choice will not be made by Bacevich but by the dumbest man in the room — The LK. If this is a (fair & balanced) regret over the choice made in the 2016 election, so be it.
[x NY Fishwrap]
Iran Might Be America’s Enemy, But Saudi Arabia Is No Friend
By Andrew J. Bacevich
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In 1987, an Iraqi warplane attacked an American Navy frigate, the USS Stark, on patrol in the Persian Gulf. Accepting Saddam Hussein’s explanation that the attack, which killed 37 sailors, had been an accident, American officials promptly used the episode, which came at the height of the Iran-Iraq war, to ratchet up pressure on Tehran. The incident provided the impetus for what became a brief, and all but forgotten, maritime war between the United States and Iran.
Last week, someone — precisely who remains to be determined — attacked two oil refineries in Saudi Arabia. American authorities have been quick to blame Iran, and the possibility of a violent confrontation between the two countries is once again growing. Before making a decision on whether to pull the trigger, President Trump would do well to reflect on that 1987 episode and its legacy.
Back then, the United States had become involved in the very bloody and seemingly interminable Iran-Iraq war, which Hussein had instigated in 1980 by invading Iran. As that war turned into a brutal stalemate, President Ronald Reagan and his advisers persuaded themselves that it was in America’s interests to come to Iraq’s aid. Iran was the “enemy,” so Iraq became America’s “friend.”
After the Stark episode, American and Iranian naval forces in the gulf began jousting, an uneven contest that culminated in April 1988 with the virtual destruction of the Iranian Navy.
Yet the United States gained little from this tidy victory. The principal beneficiary was Hussein, who wasted no time in repaying Washington by invading and annexing Kuwait soon after his war with Iran ground to a halt. Thus did America’s “friend” become America’s “enemy.”
The encounter with Iran became a precedent-setting event and a font of illusions. Since then, a series of administrations have indulged the fantasy that the direct or indirect application of military power can somehow restore stability to the gulf.
In fact, just the reverse has occurred. Instability has become chronic, with the relationship between military policy and actual American interests in the region becoming ever more difficult to discern.
In 2019, this now well-established penchant for armed intervention finds the United States once more involved in a proxy conflict, this time a civil war that has ravaged Yemen since 2015. Saudi Arabia supports one side in this bloody and interminable conflict, and Iran the other.
Under President Barack Obama and now President Trump, the United States has thrown in its lot with Saudi Arabia, providing support comparable to what the Reagan administration gave Saddam Hussein back in the 1980s. But American-assisted Saudi forces have exhibited no more competence today than did American-assisted Iraqi forces back then. So the war in Yemen drags on.
Concrete American interests in this conflict, which has already claimed an estimated 70,000 lives while confronting as many as 18 million with the prospect of starvation, are negligible. Once more, as in the 1980s, the demonization of Iran has contributed to a policy that is ill advised and arguably immoral.
I am not suggesting that Washington is supporting the wrong side in Yemen. I am suggesting, however, that neither side deserves support. Iran may well qualify as America’s “enemy.” But Saudi Arabia is not a “friend,” regardless of how many billions Riyadh spends purchasing American-manufactured weaponry and how much effort Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman invests in courting President Trump and members of his family.
The conviction, apparently widespread in American policy circles, that in the Persian Gulf (and elsewhere) the United States is compelled to take sides, has been a source of recurring mischief. No doubt the escalating rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran poses a danger of further destabilizing the gulf. But the United States is under no obligation to underwrite the folly of one side or the other.
Supporting Iraq in its foolhardy war with Iran in the 1980s proved to be strategically shortsighted in the extreme. It yielded vastly more problems than it solved. It set in train a series of costly wars that have produced negligible benefits. Supporting Saudi Arabia today in its misbegotten war in Yemen is no less shortsighted.
Power confers choice, and the United States should exercise it. We can begin to do so by recognizing that Saudi Arabia’s folly need not be our problem. ###
[Andrew J. Bacevich, professor emeritus of history and international relations at Boston University, is now president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Bacevitch received a BS (history) from the United States Military Academy (NY) as well as a PhD (history) from Princeton University (NJ). He retired from Army active duty as a colonel in a career that spanned Vietnam to the Persian Gulf. Bacevich is the author of The Age of Illusions: How America Squandered Its Cold War Victory (forthcoming, January 2020). See all books by Andrew Bacevich here.]
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