Epidemiologists Agree That Pandemics Are Cyclical — As Daily Temperatures Rise, Viral Infections Will Recede In A Reprieve That Lasts A Few Months Until An Effective Viral Vaccine Emerges; Then What?

Science and history tell us that epidemics and pandemics do not last forever. The NY Fishwrap's Eags (Timothy Egan) imagines a time in our future when we are not maintaining a social distance and wearing a face mask. Crises are agents of change. We will be a different people when we are no longer sheltering in space and dependent of delivery or take away of restaurant food. If this is a (fair & balanced) important usage of history and science, so be it.

[x NY Fishwrap]
After The Pandemic, The Big Reset
By Eags (Timothy Egan)


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Every crisis opens a course to the unknown. In an eye-blink, the impossible becomes possible. History in a sprint can mean a dark, lasting turn for the worse, or a new day of enlightened public policy.

Be still, my heart, but I see the latter. Some of the greatest advances in American history — liberation of slaves, Social Security, robust clean air and water mandates — were birthed by disaster.

For now, the coronavirus pandemic is an epic of sorrow, and has many mortal months still to run. But in the midst of our suffering, our grief for loved ones lost, our loneliness in social isolation, we have a chance to re-engineer our world.

Here’s a look at what may follow as the pandemic starts to settle:

Health Care. Universal medical coverage, whether expanding Obamacare with a public option or some form of Medicare for all, is going to happen. It’s had majority support for some time. The pandemic has just sped up the timetable. One poll found that 41 percent of adults are now more likely than they were before the pandemic to support a government-run care system covering all Americans.

When even the most dreadful Republicans — but I repeat myself — say that virus testing and treatment should be free, the door has opened to the obvious next step. Since the outbreak, one in four Republicans have suddenly come around to some version of what most nations already have.

Now, try running for office on a platform of taking away people’s health care. Or tolerating the condition that leaves nearly 28 million Americans with no health care at all. Yep, that’s the current Republican policy, led by President Trump’s attempt to gut Obamacare through the courts. Good luck with that in November.

Work. Paid family leave. Working at home. Universal sick leave. Subsidized day care. A livable minimum wage. Until about an hour ago, all of the above were considered progressive pipe dreams.

But just as World War II brought millions of women into factories, millions of people may settle into another workplace following the world war on coronavirus — their homes.

Up to half the jobs in the United States could be done, at least partially, from home, by one estimate. Currently, fewer than 4 percent of jobs allow this. The benefits of telecommuting — in terms of personal time, on the environment, on the psyche and on production — could be enormous.

To those who can’t work at home, for one bright and shining moment we all appreciate grocery clerks, truck drivers, nurses, home health care workers and others as heroes. But we’ve never treated them that way with the range of benefits available to those who wear a different collar.

Let Trump defend the broken status quo, while Joe Biden goes bold, defining what a people-centered economy would look like.

Food. With seven in 10 adults overweight or obese, the poor health and nutrition of most Americans is a horrid and accepted fact. But with the disproportionate number of Covid-19 deaths attributed to diet-related conditions, we are seeing, more rapidly, just how much this societal problem can kill.

This doesn’t mean we should turn to fat shaming. But it does mean that, while looking at obesity as a public health problem as deadly as smoking, we can make some big structural changes in the food system.

For starters, there should be universal free school meals. Kids who take advantage of this are more likely to eat fruits and vegetables [PDF]. But under the present system, many poor students feel so stigmatized that they go hungry instead.

For adults, the paradox of living in a nation where 40 million people face food insecurity while 40 percent of our food is wasted, makes no sense.

One quick solution is to allow all 42 million Americans who receive food stamps to shop online and get their groceries delivered like everyone else. One lasting solution is to standardize date labeling, so that food that may not be perfect quality is still safe to eat and can be used by food banks.

And it’s time to recognize the vital value of people who harvest our fruits and vegetables. Up to half of farmworkers are undocumented, and the Trump administration has been harassing and demeaning them.

But lo: The Department of Homeland Security has just classified farmworkers as “essential critical infrastructure workers.” Let’s make that permanent through the big immigration fix that awaits a new president.

Climate. One byproduct of so many people working at home is clean air. With the global economy in a coma, emissions could fall by the largest amount since World War II. But this could have little impact on the trajectory of climate change if we don’t make larger structural changes. China is already firing up its coal-powered factories.

We have only a few years to save ourselves from ourselves. Our trashed and overheated world is a slower pandemic. The good news is that, even with the crash in oil prices, renewable energy use is on an upward course. Coal is yesterday, no matter how much Trump tries to promote it and China drags its heels.

More than anything, the pandemic has shown how quickly things can change if they must. Carpe diem. ###

[Timothy Egan is a contributing opinion writer who covers the environment, the American West, and politics at the NY Fishwrap . Egan — winner of both a Pulitzer Prize in 2001 as a member of a team of reporters who wrote the series "How Race Is Lived in America" and a National Book Award (The Worst Hard Time in 2006) — graduated from the University of Washington with a BA ( journalism), and was awarded a doctorate of humane letters (honoris causa) by Whitman College (WA) in 2000 for his environmental writings. Egan's most recent book is A Pilgrimage to Eternity (2019). See all other books by Eags here.]

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